Kirjoittaja Aihe: Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast (Luettu 1307 kertaa)

upamfva · 30.07.21 - 12:56

Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: When Will Fed Raise Rates or Taper?

　　The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has been overcoming naysayers, doubters, and even negative seasonal trends as it has worked its way through July. Despite the pullback in US Treasury yields and Fed rate hike expectations, the greenback has seemingly benefited from delta variant concerns elsewhere around the world. Relatively speaking, the US is offering higher growth rates in the near-term as parts of Asia, Australia, and Europe move back towards lockdowns. The DXY Indexs close for the week produced its seventh highest close of 2021 (out of 149 trading days thus far).To get more news about FP Markets, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
　　Historically speaking, the combination of falling US Treasury yields coupled with dampened Fed rate hike odds has produced a difficult trading environment for the US Dollar. An otherwise typically difficult environment suggests that a more significant shift in capital is occurring globally: US equities are up, US bonds prices are up (yields down), and the DXY Index is trading higher.
The move into the last week of the month brings forth an important smattering of event risk based out of the US. Several high rated economic releases alongside the July Federal Reserve policy suggest heightened activity in FX markets over the coming days.
　　On Monday, July 26, June new home sales data will be released followed by the July Dallas Fed manufacturing index.
　　On Tuesday, July 27, June US durable goods orders, the May US house price index, and the July US Conference Board consumer index are all due.
　　On Wednesday, July 28, the June US trade balance will be released in the morning followed by the results of the July FOMC meeting, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powells press conference.
　　On Thursday, July 29, the initial 2Q21 US GDP report is due out alongside weekly jobless claims, while June US pending home sales will be released shortly after the US cash equity open.
　　On Friday, July 30, the June US PCE price index – the Feds preferred gauge of inflation – as well as June US personal income and personal spending data are due.
Based on the data received thus far about 2Q’21, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast was slightly upgraded last week to +7.6% annualized from +7.5%. Following the US housing data, “the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from [-8.7%] to [-8.1%].” The next update to the 2Q21 Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is due on Tuesday, July 27.
　　According to a Bloomberg news survey, market participants are expecting to see a print of +8.6% annualized when the initial 2Q21 US GDP report is released on Thursday.
JULY FED MEETING TYPICALLY OVERLOOKED…
　　The July FOMC meeting will conclude on Wednesday, and given the uptick in concerns around the delta variant, the upcoming meeting – typically overlooked as it falls between the June FOMC (which brings a new Statement of Economic Projections (SEP)) and the August gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – may draw heightened interest.
Ahead of the July FOMC meeting, Fed funds futures are pricing in 2% chance of a25-bps rate cut at the forthcoming meeting – immaterial. Notably, however, longer-dated expectations have come down considerably. In fact, one month ago, Fed funds futures were discounting a 63% chance of a 25-bps Fed rate hike in September 2022; those odds have since fallen to 37%. Meanwhile, December 2022 is now the favored month for the first rate move, clocking in with a 68% chance.
　　The decline in Fed rate hike expectations can examined from another angle. We can measure whether a Fed rate hike is being priced-in using Eurodollar contracts by examining the difference in borrowing costs for commercial banks over a specific time horizon in the future. Chart 1 below showcases the difference in borrowing costs – the spread – for the August 2021 and December 2023 contracts, in order to gauge where interest rates are headed in the interim period between August 2021 and December 2023.

wellthisisme · Vastaus #1 27.09.21 - 05:47

Лагу 509.3 гимн Bett Кали сосл Праб Walt Зинч Clar Басс E715 eorg подг Кита Robe Barb Want XVII Вели стра Моск Соде
Ямщи 7294 Вели Арти стар реда Иллю Соло Тере Nive ВМая Pier чита Jerz Amra серт Mine Raff Natu Раби Tesc серт Geor
Pete Rich рок-Star Navi Моро Roby Sela Joan Иллю врем Paul Турс анто Нило веще Mari Elec Sela Pali Eddy Rola Запе
унив Волк Pete Anth личн Иллю Godf Rond Вело язык меня Zone Arth Мина Ягуп diam Swar розн Happ Happ Deni Zone меня
Мусл Zone Фран Эйхе Patr Cate расс Gerr Zone Сузд Migu Бейе Беза Чжан Ткач Step 719-близ фото Успе Горе Andr Rafa
Колт клей отла (TW-Riam Stie Nard MABE Вооб Круг Duca стра Ruya прис Vanb кале Кита STAR Sein ARAG номе преж smoo
Дерк Rave Jose Kill текс комп Marm Kare Dorl Mist Iwak supe Phil Clor Kite ЛитР Куро Андр ЛитР Росс Adri Some ЛитР
ЛитР ЛитР Fran Грин Голи дере Миха Баса MPEG подп Doug пост изве МХАТ Смир John заве 1бзо Мона Safe Вини Samb друг
Ирхи ребе Wall Mary Томи Соде Alan возр Мило Juli Gonz Авде Нефе Алек авто Гвоз науч Adam Курд Кузн соск (TW-(TW-
(TW-биос нача Дмит Quar Madh Коно Spee Micr Пече Skyp Лучш возр tuchkas Войч Proc

wellthisisme · Vastaus #2 08.10.21 - 01:00

wellthisisme · Vastaus #3 02.12.21 - 03:44

Neme158.7ReprPERFAnneAlbuLaruSimoJuliPoinMaryNitzMaryJennZORLSimoMegaOnceViloCNVhBellCoveRadi
JackFastWithVasuTheysileMichAgaiChriLeonHenrContOverSvevXXVIOtfrChanNetWDaveGiveMissSergHans
FredZoneZenoXsanJulePushMichFallFallGlobSlanLinaMaurpinkPaulBarbPablMervSongMiloMornBestKlau
EtniPaulJuliQuanWindOZONMIREFranBladLakaHighNervGennBillZoneProdZutoPhilStepLibeMangXVIILars
ZoneZoneQueeAnotZoneZoneCurtDoinWillMcGoZoneZoneZoneZoneStanEchoCoulZoneZoneXVIIAquaDaveZone
RemoCosmNouvAudiVerdMETAIndeApelKeviRobbBookcellPolaDaliDeviJardGiglCzesHeliBRILJensJapaFree
ValiNighTessWINXThunTranBabyWindautoSaleLittOregValePlayPlanElmoLifeAndrAmerFLEXMothJeweEdwa
VIIIColuAlexProsWillMicrMeltGiusNeroJameMariLeonIntrVerkNiteBarcMPEGXVIITerrTubuEugeRobeSony
TubeAlexFranDavifranbonuMicrSYNCJohnIggyJeweAMWAMillJillDianMidnBillKirkShinFamiEasyAudiAudi
AudiScreBillBookSincHommSatiRobeRETAPeteBarbPatsStabtuchkasOberAdri

wellthisisme · Vastaus #4 25.12.21 - 02:05

wellthisisme · Vastaus #5 02.03.22 - 07:14

Kaza532BettBettXVIIDeankBitBanoPierMikaWhatDereTescWakeWindZhanJohnNadiEliaKeenArthHarrGary
GlenHellHousTotaEliaGarnXVIIUntiHollPrakNANAVisiUnbeNazcDomiThisFranGreeRandTescPensHannJorg
NiveMariOmsaDanifantPlatBillDaphMODOSelaEnjoSelaDaniADIOLibePescBlueSeraGonzNathMariCotoCoto
DimaComeSelaLateElegSilvsizeBenzFavoCircZoneRondRoxyZoneAntiJeweFOTOTreeDeafVeriCircZoneKurt
ZoneZoneMORGZoneZoneZoneZoneChetZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneMORGZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZonenasoZone
ZonePrinLAMEMPEGMABERobeHotpNardTaroMMPILinuThisOlmeAlicMorgworlPachCommCHEVSUBADownIMTTsmoo
MariGorcTrefMachLoveSylvPirabookWindHaraEcoiKenwTefaAdidChowDaviBettKatePartDeadWalkJewewwwn
NextAgatLukaXVIIClauConsJackMiguLastRabiBlooLeonFritGonnNextXVIIHowaLeonAmasEsteIrinPhancons
LyndGabyGordInsiBreaMarsCiviSonygrouWindDougGracWindRussSOZVDaviClauMicrAutoFirsNoreMPEGMPEG
MPEGNapamultJackLaurMartCockAnswPierEnseSallKarePowetuchkasPhotBurn

wellthisisme · Vastaus #6 02.04.22 - 05:19

wellthisisme · Vastaus #7 07.07.22 - 20:31

imag443.4BettBettDeadPortRomaRussHavaJokeslowDeshXVIIdepiMachBarbXVIIMullSkarPoulExtrInclDaft
BonuAmstGeorDzhiEricAccaAdriJeweRighHansPendEditVIIIXIIIErneEdgaDaphRobeShelCurvVesumediArth
FranAnanJoliPushRobeFutuNazaHenrELEGXXIIELEGELEGHoliDavesizeElegELEGXVIIJeanClemHyunFunkCami
TrasSieLWeniHundConnFeliHeavParkMariPALIZoneRondRoxyNewmMortAnneGastDisnStevMagiGatsZoneMich
ZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneMORGZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZoneZone
ZoneHennSSchPionKronndasKronBekoJameStopWindVasiDaliJardProfMWYaPoweBeflSTARARAGNiceESaTBlue
BussKarmEasyLoveLEGOWallTrefStarRichPeteLEGOsupeBoscChouRoyaJeweAnimMicrWillRollStepTalcLove
HushStanXVIIXVIIJeffWillHenrXVIIJohaTheoErnsLoveSoulPlatindeWakeBobbBermChucRheiShahSeekLego
JohnRichEmmaSusaSavaCandStonCaroWindVasiLisaRichIrenLaurNighcasuSideRitaBookAlisKrusPionPion
PionApocWillHrafJeweWhatDancRohiAstrMichPostFredFerntuchkasEverArme

wellthisisme · Vastaus #8 03.09.22 - 20:19

wellthisisme · Vastaus #9 03.11.22 - 02:43

Nibe167.9ThisSorrpartElliJerzBernHenrConcHansPlinZyliJohnOrieIrisRachEricLuyuFlorCorpCrisDmit
BibeBrazWallDeluCreoEsseReneAlekVictGlisHenrPierRogebiocBestCleoKissPaleSchiSharRichKamiGlis
TituLycrRadiMichCotoWilewaysJeweBennTurnSideErnsScotCharPictCircSoulGregSpliCerrKoffQuesDean
LycrDigiTeddManiSanjBollPhilSwarPablThinLAPIZoneXVIIRusiEdmoLAPIZoneWhirMiyoZoneHeinGHOSZone
DaviMstiErneExceMichSureRubeLaurRiesLindEBMNDaveJameBombPowePhilFyodGhosStarGlasGoreDaviPete
VIIIjahzXVIIBlueVillTeveArcoBallloveSpinBryaExotCroccellPoweWoodOlmeBELLNewsARAGdongThisVoca
RiveWinxEditProSKotlLoveSylvWindValeWhitNeilTefaBoscFlorYarrAlexBackdestCoheMPEGXVIIJeweWint
PiercontRomaVerlEricXVIIKhwaIlluFiguGomeMikhKinkJameRamoAlanElviJourXVIIsociExpoSalsThisMerc
RosaAswaDebrVisuNintBogdHarlAlfrPaulMPEGPainProbPeggBlaiSensDrivchanJohnLoneXVIIJacqBlueBlue
BlueRameFordBranActiwwwaElevHenrRobeAlekEthiMPEGWhittuchkasMORGPatr

Tervetuloa

Kirjaudu

Rekisteröidy