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美聯儲無視通脹火爆,或釀成政策失誤和經濟衰退
upamfva:
美聯儲無視通脹火爆,或釀成政策失誤和經濟衰退
安聯集團首席經濟顧問Mohamed El-Erian撰文表示,貨幣政策失誤可能導致美國潛在的強勁而轉型性的經濟復蘇脫軌,本周的事態發展表明,為什麼我們應該擔心這種可能性正變得越來越大。以下是他的看法。To get more news about 外匯行情, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
美國的兩大通脹指標——消費者價格指數和生產者價格指數,再次高於市場共識預期。這樣的通脹數據在全球範圍內已經變得司空見慣,反映了經濟學家和決策者多大程度上仍落後於事實情況。
CPI和PPI雙雙走高是嚴重的事實。它表明,實際發生的通脹率正伴隨著醞釀中的額外通脹率。這有悖於美聯儲一再認為通脹是暫時的觀點,尤其是在基數效應已經基本淡出的情況下。
可以關注本輪企業財報季,來確認那些與企業高管交談的人一次又一次聽到的三個通脹動態:工資以越來越普遍的方式上漲;供應和運輸瓶頸可能會持續一段時間;企業有信心將部分或全部推動成本上升的因素傳遞到他們的售價中。
本周的另一個重要事件是美聯儲主席鮑威爾週三的國會聽證會,當時他承認通脹一直高於美聯儲預期,並且持續時間更長。
然而,在談到政策影響時,他立即回到了經常重複的“暫時性”口頭禪,以支持政策立場不變。紐約聯儲主席威廉姆斯(John Williams)週一傳遞了類似的資訊,證實了三位最有影響力的美聯儲官員中的兩位——也是市場最為關注的決策者,仍然傾向於維持超刺激性政策,儘管經濟增速和通脹一再被低估。
這種政策配置持續的時間越長,貨幣政策出現失誤的風險就越大。隨著美聯儲的政策框架已將觸發因素從預測轉向結果,這一點尤為明顯。
事實上,由於美聯儲抵制住壓力而不闡述兩項關鍵指標的具體細節,不評估短暫性通脹的時間長度和“靈活平均通脹目標”的量化定義,它可以在這條道路上繼續一段時間。
對於美聯儲的另一種信念:如果需要的話,央行擁有快速有效做出反應的政策工具,而不會擾亂經濟和金融,雖然它可能也會這麼做,但越來越多經濟學家對此感到擔憂。
實際情況以及美聯儲強調風險管理和建立政策保險的傳統,都要求這家世界上最強大的央行開始減少刺激。
例如,它應該削減每月1200億美元資產購買中的抵押貸款部分,因這助長了本已火爆的房地產市場,讓許多美國人無力購買新房,並在其他地方沒有明顯的經濟利益。
若拒絕這樣做,美聯儲面臨著在未來不得不急踩刹車的更高風險。果真如此,美聯儲將來可能無意中引發經濟衰退,正如前紐約聯儲主席杜德利(Bill Dudley)過去幾周曾提醒過彭博讀者和聽眾的那樣。
這種數據與美聯儲政策反應之間的矛盾並不新鮮。事實上,本周是過去幾個月裏類似事件的重演。但潛在壓力正在增加,幸運的是目前仍然溫和。
經濟-政策脫節持續的時間越長,市場中的冒險行為就會越多,出現意外的風險也就越大。
在過去幾周裏,越來越多經濟學家和企業領導人呼籲以更加開放的心態來評估當前的通脹壓力性質和持續性。有證據表明美聯儲內部也存在更大的分歧,至少三位地區聯儲主席公開表示支持更早實施減碼。
幸運的是,仍然存在避免政策失誤和市場意外的窗口。但窗口正在關閉,面臨風險的不僅是包容性經濟復蘇的持久性和強度,而且還有拜登政府的轉型性經濟計畫。
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